Abstract
The cement industry in Iraq is one of the oldest modern industries, the most developed and advanced, and one of the most influential industries in the national economy. Since the Iraqi cement industry provides all the necessary requirements for success in terms of the availability of raw materials, technical and technical expertise, and fixed and well-established markets locally and globally, this industry was supposed to be expanded, and planning for this industry is necessary, especially since cement is one of the most important main materials whose availability greatly affects the completion of urban and economic projects. From this standpoint, studies have been prepared for the future of this industry in order to advance, develop and expand it. The aim of the research is to predict the quantities of Iraqi cement production for the future period (2003 - 2013). Using the best-fitting Box-Jenkins models. The research reached a number of conclusions, namely, using the Box-Jenkins method, it was found that the chain is unstable, and thus the first difference was taken with the aim of achieving stability. Likewise, from the behavior of the autocorrelation and partial correlation coefficients, we concluded that it was possible to identify and choose the appropriate model to represent the series, as the appropriate model was (21) ARIMA. We also found that the lower limits of the prediction may be negative, and this indicates that in the event of an urgent need for this material, local production may not be sufficient, so the country resorts to filling the resulting shortfall through imports.
DOI
10.33095/jeas.v15i54.1218
Subject Area
Statistical
First Page
296
Last Page
309
Recommended Citation
Arhif, N. H. (2009). Using the Box Jenkins Models to Predict Iraq's Cement Production and to Demonstrate Its Adequacy Under Future Construction Projects. Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 15(54), 296-309. https://doi.org/10.33095/jeas.v15i54.1218
