Abstract
The subject of consumption holds significant importance in economic studies during both peacetime and wartime, given its direct link to individuals and society as a key indicator of economic and social welfare; consequently, the necessity of regulating this behavioral and quantitative variable becomes even more critical during times of conflict. This research utilizes statistical data on private consumption expenditure, per capita national income, and the consumer price index (CPI) for the period (1970–2000) to measure the impact of instability on consumer spending patterns. To achieve this, the timeframe was segmented according to the prevailing conflicts: the conflict in the North (1970–1980), the Iran-Iraq War (1980–1990), and the Gulf War followed by the international sanctions on Iraq (1990–2000). By employing the Chow Test, the total Sum of Squared Errors (SSE) for the entire period was compared against the partial Sum of Squared Errors for the restricted sub-periods to identify structural breaks caused by instability. It is hoped that the findings of this study will serve as effective indicators for enhancing the accuracy of consumer demand forecasting in Iraq, thereby supporting the development of robust strategic plans to meet the requirements of the Iraqi consumer.
DOI
10.33095/jeas.v15i55.1220
Subject Area
Statistical
First Page
146
Last Page
152
Recommended Citation
Kazem, A. H., & Saleh, R. A. (2009). Test the Impact of Instability on the Pattern of Spending by the Iraqi Consumer. Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 15(55), 146-152. https://doi.org/10.33095/jeas.v15i55.1220
