Abstract
The paper aims to analyze the determinants of virtual water use for barley crops in Iraq over the period (1990–2023), in light of increasing water challenges and declining inflows of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers. The research adopts a descriptive and econometric analytical approach, employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine the relationship between imported virtual water quantity (VW) as the dependent variable and a set of independent variables, including agricultural GDP, blue water, the water self-sufficiency ratio, and the degree of agricultural trade openness. The results of the Bounds Test indicate the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship among the variables. Furthermore, the Error Correction Model (ECM) reveals an effective adjustment mechanism, with an adjustment speed of 72% annually, indicating convergence toward the long-run equilibrium path. The findings also demonstrate significant, albeit varying, effects: agricultural GDP and the water self-sufficiency ratio exhibit an inverse relationship with virtual water imports, whereas trade openness and green water show a positive relationship with virtual water imports. The study recommends adopting water-oriented trade policies that support domestic production and improve the efficient use of available water resources, with the aim of reducing reliance on imports of water-intensive commodities. It also emphasizes the importance of adopting the concept of virtual water as a fundamental basis for formulating agricultural foreign trade policies.
DOI
10.33095/2227-703X.4349
Subject Area
Economics
First Page
49
Last Page
56
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License
Recommended Citation
Rahim, M., & Al-Badri, B. (2026). Barley Virtual Water Determinants in Iraq: An Econometric Analysis Study for the Period (1990–2023). Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 32(2), 49-56. https://doi.org/10.33095/2227-703X.4349
