Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences <div id="jInfo"> <div class="linkContent"> <div id="about" class="tip2"> <div id="jInfo"> <div class="linkContent"> <div id="about" class="tip2"> <p>The Journal of Economics &amp; Administrative Sciences (JEAS) Established in 1973, It is a research journal published by the College of Administration and Economics / University of Baghdad (Baghdad, Iraq). It is quarterly publishing articles that describe original research of permanent interest in all branches of administration, economics, accounting, and statistics. JEAS publishes National and international peer-review research in the areas of business administration, supply chain management, entrepreneurship, human capital management, management information systems, economics, finance, accounting, public administration, governance, and statistics. The journal welcomes both analytical and empirical research studies.</p> <p>Academic publishing is one of the basic requirements for supporting and activating the movement of scientific research, It provides researchers with an important opportunity to assess their research through arbitration clauses governing scientific research published, and display their research for scientific communication in production and employment results in the movement of scientific research service, The College Journal (Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences) from the prestigious journals in the life process issued by the College of Administrative and Economics - University of Baghdad, a quarterly scientific journal, dealing with economic and administrative studies, accounting and statistical.<br />Also interested in research on applied and field studies and evaluation of cognitive styles and concepts and comparative studies and case studies, as well as building models and theoretical frameworks and summaries of Masters and PhDs outstanding, as well as the deployment of business conferences and seminars within and outside the country.<br />The Journal was quarterly published every three months and four issues per year, as well as it's journal concerned with the deployment of the upgrade for the purposes of research for professors.<br />The first issue was released it in 1973 and expanded in scope issued to Arab countries and has attracted research from outside the country .<br />The Journal has obtained ISSN (2227-703x) and The number of deposit in the Library and Archives in Baghdad (1041 to 2008), and is continuing to supplement issued to all Iraqi universities and educational institutions, as well as the relevant ministries. <br />Scientific Seasonal Refereed Journal Specialized In Economic, Administration, Accounting And Statistical Studies<br />DATE OF FIRST ISSUE (1973).<br />NO. OF ISSUE YEAR(4).<br />issue published between 1973-untile now.</p> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> كلية الإدارة والاقتصاد/ جامعة بغداد en-US Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences 2518-5764 <p>Articles submitted to the journal should not have been published before in their current or substantially similar form, or be under consideration for publication with another journal. Please see JEAS originality guidelines for details. Use this in conjunction with the points below about references, before submission i.e. always attribute clearly using either indented text or quote marks as well as making use of the preferred Harvard style of formatting. Authors submitting articles for publication warrant that the work is not an infringement of any existing copyright and will indemnify the publisher against any breach of such warranty. For ease of dissemination and to ensure proper policing of use, papers and contributions become the legal copyright of the publisher unless otherwise agreed.</p> <p>The editor may make use of Turnitin software for checking the originality of submissions received.</p> Analyzing the impact of exchange rate fluctuations and inflation on the GDP in Iraq using the modern methodology of Cointegration for the period (1988-2020) <p><strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The research aims to analyze the impact of exchange rate fluctuations (EXM and EXN) and inflation (INF) on the gross domestic product (GDP) in Iraq for the period 1988-2020. The research is important by analyzing the magnitude of the macroeconomic and especially GDP effects of these variables, as well as the economic effects of exchange rates on economic activity. The results of the standard analysis using the ARDL model showed a long-term equilibrium relationship, according to the Bound Test methodology, from explanatory (independent) variables to the internal (dependent) variable, while the value of the error correction vector factor was negative and moral at a level less than (1%). The relationship between EXM and GDP was inverse, with partial flexibility for EXM (-7.666), meaning that an increase in EXM (1%) will lead to a decrease in GDP (7.666%). This applies to the reality of the Iraqi economy, as the method used in recent times is to devalue the local currency. The effect of EXN was steady in the long run, with the partial flexibility of EXN (5.785), that is, an increase of EXN (1%) will lead to an increase in GDP (5.785%), and the model as a whole is statistically significant. The explanatory power of the model is high, as it was (R<sup>2</sup>=0.816), indicating that 81% of the changes in GDP in constant prices are due to the change in (EXM, EXN, and INF). The study concluded that in light of the outbreak of the coronavirus, the disruption of most economic projects, and the decline in the prices of the Iraqi government, as a result of the decrease in the balance of oil and oil revenues, as a result of the balance of the government part of the solution is to devalue the local currency by controlling the nominal exchange rate. At present, the Iraqi Monetary Authority recommends that the Managed Flexible Exchange System be continued as an effective means of avoiding external shocks for the Iraqi economy, as it allows for appropriate adjustments to be made continuously</strong></p> Dalia Omar Nazmi Al-Bayati Saif Adel Sabbar Al-Dulaimi Nadhem Abdullah Abid Al-Mihimdy Copyright (c) 2022 2022-03-30 2022-03-30 28 131 83 108 10.33095/jeas.v28i131.2235 Effects of Water Scarcity on Rural Household Economy <p><strong>This study examined the effects of water scarcity on rural household economy in El Fashir Rural Council / North Darfur State- western Sudan. Both quantitative and qualitative methods were used as to get a deeper understanding of the impact of water scarcity on the rural house economy in the study area. 174 households out of 2017 were selected from 45 villages which were distributed in eight village councils forming the study area. Statistical methods were used to manipulate the data of the study. The obtained results revealed that water scarcity negatively affected the rural household economy in the study area in many features. These include the followings: much family efforts and time were directed to fetch for water consequently, reducing time on farming activities and off-farm income- generating activities especially in summer season. Also scarcity of water negatively affects the household budget allocation in the sense that considerable portion of family income was devoted to meet human and animal water needs or in medical treatments from water related diseases due to consumption of unfit water. But the biggest impact of water scarcity is its adverse effect on the rural household food security due to the reduction of the stable and cash crops productivity or increasing food prices as a fall in the rural household income due to the declining of the annual rainfalls. Finally, water scarcity has resulted in increasing school dropout rates, especially girls, in order to help their families in fetching water for both human and animal consumption which, in the long-run, affect the household economy by jeopardizing the rural household’s human capital</strong></p> Adam Ahmed Soliman Sabbil Badreldin Mohamed Ahmed Abdulrahman Copyright (c) 2022 2022-03-30 2022-03-30 28 131 109 118 10.33095/jeas.v28i131.2236 Internal Debt Options during the Two Double Shocks and Its Impact on Foreign Reserve in Iraq <p><strong>The research aims at a statement Internal Debt options during shocks and the impact of this borrowing in the volume of the foreign reserve, using induction and deduction with available data analysis. During the period (2004-2013) did not require the use of borrowing across (financial institutions, discounted transfers, bonds); it was only sufficient by transfer with commercial banks that can finance of temporary budget deficits: rose and decline of volume of foreign reserve according to the changes of oil prices and the volume of purchases and sales of the Central Bank of Iraq. Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) has significantly contributed to Internal Debt through bond and discounted transfers in the secondary market; thus, funding the public budget and sustaining the momentum of battles during the first double shock (2014-2017), which reflected how it is negatively affected the volume of foreign reserve, in other words, reduction the proportion of foreign assets to local assets. The second double crisis (2020) reduced the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against the US dollar, which was reflected at high prices; inflation reached (5.6) at the end of the first half of 2020, which means adopting a new choice to finance the budget deficit. This means that there is an inverse relationship between the volume of foreign reserve and internal debt, where decrease volume of foreign reserve during two double shocks</strong></p> Hasan Hazim Lafta Saja Fadhil Jawad Copyright (c) 2022 2022-03-30 2022-03-30 28 131 119 132 10.33095/jeas.v28i131.2237 Blockchain Technology and its Potential Effect on the Banking Industry (China Case Study) <p><strong>The aim of the research is to investigate potential effects of the finance industry and block-chain to general business of financing in particular, as well as its shortcomings and difficulties. To answer the research questions, the researcher used the objective narrative-analytical descriptive approach and included a qualitative analysis of Blockchain technology. The process of Blockchain technology based on their industries, the authors were selected based on their reputation in the Blockchain field. The research found that Blockchain can improve the efficiency of the banking industry's various sections. It has the ability to upgrade and transfer wages across borders, financial reporting and compliance, as well as trade finance and capital markets. It also facilitates the procedure of getting to know your customer straightforward, and in addition to these advantages regulation and technological problems are some of the roadblocks. that must be resolved for effective implementation in the financial system</strong></p> Aya Adel Hassan Copyright (c) 2022 2022-03-30 2022-03-30 28 131 133 149 10.33095/jeas.v28i131.2240 Industrial Development Strategy Until 2030 <p><strong>The research is a vision of the future of industry in Iraq, so it is may be outside the ceiling of the capabilities of the Iraqi economy, and therefore it is exaggerated. Therefore, future plans must be applicable through the availability of capabilities. Everyone knows that the financial and administrative corruption and mismanagement of resources are the main cause of the inefficiency of the industrial sector, and the failure to exercise its real role in achieving economic development.; as well as the political situation and the dominance of parties and their insistence on addressing positions that have a strong relationship in managing the economic sector that has a significant impact on drawing the economic map in its current form. That is why it has become necessary to reform the political system as an important pillar for the success of this strategy.</strong></p> <p><strong>It presents the vision of the industrial system until 2030, which is summarized in the development of the industrial system in Iraq to support a diversified and sustainable national economy in terms of economic and environmental aspects. It works within a stimulating business environment based on creativity and works in an institutional and organizational system that ensures implementation and achievement of goals and contributes to providing more job opportunities and improving the standard of living for individuals and society. To implement this vision, four basic elements were identified that represent the axes of the industrial strategy, namely: building the nucleus of competitive industrial clusters based on large industrial facilities integrated with local and global value chains, creating effective and stable working conditions that allow the existence and growth of private enterprises, improving the industrial and knowledge infrastructure, and adopting an appropriate governance system that supports the implementation of the previous three axes. A set of goals have been set for each of these axes to form the whole path the strategy to follow</strong></p> Adel Ghazi Khalil Jasim Al- Hayaly Copyright (c) 2022 2022-03-30 2022-03-30 28 131 150 166 10.33095/jeas.v28i131.2241 Using Quadratic Form Ratio Multiple Test to Estimate Linear Regression Model Parameters in Big Data with Application: Child Labor in Iraq <p><strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The current paper proposes a new estimator for the linear regression model parameters under Big Data circumstances.&nbsp; From the diversity of Big Data variables comes many challenges that&nbsp; can be interesting to the&nbsp; researchers who try their best to find new and novel methods to estimate the parameters of linear regression model. Data has been collected by Central Statistical Organization IRAQ, and the child labor in Iraq has been chosen as data. Child labor is the most vital phenomena that both society and education are suffering from and it affects the future of our next generation. Two methods have been selected to estimate the parameter of linear regression model, one Covariate at a Time Multiple Testing OCMT. Moreover, the Euclidian Distance has been used as a comparison criterion among the three methods</strong></p> Ahmed Mahdi Salih Munaf Yousif Hmood Copyright (c) 2022 2022-03-30 2022-03-30 28 131 167 179 10.33095/jeas.v28i131.2242 Comparing Some Methods of Estimating the Parameters and Survival Function of a Log-logistic Distribution with a Practical Application <p><strong>The Log-Logistic distribution is one of the important statistical distributions as it can be applied in many fields and biological experiments and other experiments, and its importance comes from the importance of determining the survival function of those experiments. The research will be summarized in making a comparison between the method of maximum likelihood and the method of least squares and the method of weighted least squares to estimate the parameters and survival function of the log-logistic distribution using the comparison criteria MSE, MAPE, IMSE, and this research was applied to real data for breast cancer patients. The results showed that the method of Maximum likelihood best in the case of estimating the parameters of the distribution and survival function</strong></p> Samah Sabah Hassan al-aameri Entsar Arebe Fadam AL.Doori Copyright (c) 2022 2022-03-30 2022-03-30 28 131 180 192 10.33095/jeas.v28i131.2243 Euro Dinar Trading Analysis Using WARIMA Hybrid Model <p><strong>The rise in the general level of prices in Iraq makes the local commodity less able to compete with other commodities, which leads to an increase in the amount of imports and a decrease in the amount of exports, since it raises demand for foreign currencies while decreasing demand for the local currency, which leads to a decrease in the exchange rate of the local currency in exchange for an increase in the exchange rate of currencies. This is one of the most important factors affecting the determination of the exchange rate and its fluctuations. This research deals with the currency of the European Euro and its impact against the Iraqi dinar. To make an accurate prediction for any process, modern methods can be used through which the model is developed. One of the most important modern methods that smooth the time series and purify it from noise is the wavelet transformation and in order to predict time series data using a new technique that combines the classic ARIMA method and the technique of Wavelet transformation, and this is called Wavelet-ARIMA hybrid model, as it was applied to data for a weekly time series of the rate of change in prices, buying and selling the European euro currency against the Iraqi dinar on the classic ARIMA model and the hybrid Wavelet-ARIMA model. The comparison was made between ARIMA and Wavelet-ARIMA models using several functions, including Haar, Db4 and Db6 to forecast the model that achieves better results for 64 weeks. As the hybrid model with Db6 function achieves better results, as the euro currency continues to increase, this negatively affects the Iraqi citizen in terms of high prices and positively on the country's economy</strong></p> Elaf Alaa Al-deen Wazeer Lamyaa Mohammed Ali Hameed Copyright (c) 2022 2022-03-30 2022-03-30 28 131 193 204 10.33095/jeas.v28i131.2245 The Role of the Auditor in Confirming the Integrated Reports - An Exploratory Study on a Sample of External Auditors in Iraq- <p><strong>&nbsp; The aim of the research is to identify the extent of the ability to ensure the integrated reports by the auditor in verifying the credibility of these reports, and their implications for the benefit of all parties dealing with the economic unit, as well as measuring the impact of the assurance procedures followed by the auditors and their role in confirming these reports.</strong></p> <p><strong>&nbsp; The research methodology was designed after studying the previous literature related to the research variables, and then the relationship between these variables was tested, through the use of a questionnaire list. A questionnaire targeting the community of auditors in the local environment, and the results of the study were reached using the (SPSS) program and the application of statistical models to determine the correlation and influence between the variables.</strong></p> <p><strong>&nbsp;&nbsp; The most important conclusions shown by the study are that the process of confirming the integrated reports results in an evaluation of the information they contain by external auditors, who are usually qualified for such actions, are neutral and independent of the economic unit, and thus enable them to give a clear perception of the truthfulness of these reports’ representation of the information contained therein. Thus, reassuring all parties dealing with the economic unit and increasing their confidence in the content of the integrated reports.</strong></p> <p><strong>&nbsp;&nbsp; The most important recommendations made by the study are that professional organizations in Iraq must issue instructions or guiding rules regulating the process of confirming the integrated reports, and the Office of Financial Supervision, in cooperation with the Profession Council and the Audit of Accounts in Iraq, should qualify the auditors working in audit offices professionally and scientifically, to be able to complete the process of confirming the integrated reports in all its dimensions, as it creates a challenge for the profession of auditing</strong></p> Reyam Farhan Zahraw AL-Saaedi Bushra Fadil Al-Taie Copyright (c) 2022 2022-03-30 2022-03-30 28 131 205 222 10.33095/jeas.v28i131.2246 The Extent of the Practice of Iraqi Banks to Manage Profits Using the (LLp it) Model and Its Reflection on the Tax Base, A Case Study of A Sample of Iraqi Private Banks Listed in The Iraqi Stock Exchange <p><strong>The research aims to identify the extent to which Iraqi private banks practice profit management motivated by reducing the taxable base by increasing the provision for loan losses by relying on the LLP it model, which consists of a main independent variable (net profit before tax) and independent sub-variables (bank size, total debts to total equity, loans granted to total obligations) under the name of the variables governing the banking business. (Colmgrove-Smirnov) was used to test the normal distribution of data for all banks during the period 2017-2020, and then find the correlation between the main independent variable sub and the dependent variable by means of the correlation coefficient person, and then using the multiple regression model to find the effect between the research variables according to the equation of the LLP it model for a sample of three banks (the Commercial Bank of Iraq, the Bank of Baghdad, the Ashur International Bank) based on a time series extending from (2017-2020). The researchers reached the most important conclusions :The possibility of using the LLP it model on Iraqi banks to reveal the practice of profit management and there is a significant correlation between the net profit before tax and the provision for loan losses. The researchers recommended the most important recommendations: Conducting continuous tests to detect banks that practice earnings management for the purpose of reducing the tax base, the necessity of using modern tools and methods (LLP it) by the tax administration to limit the practice of profit management in order to reduce the tax base</strong></p> Haider Kathem Nasser Ghaith Arkan Abdullah Mohammed Hashim Hammood Copyright (c) 2022 2022-03-30 2022-03-30 28 131 223 237 10.33095/jeas.v28i131.2247 The Role of External Audit in Limiting Creative Accounting Practices in Light of International Standards from The Point of View of Certified Accountancy Experts in Iraq as a Model <p><strong>This research aims to solve a problem in the field of accounting and financial knowledge in the world today, that is, the problem of creative accounting. Especially after the global financial crisis and the collapse of many large companies in the world, people find that they use creative accounting methods to distinguish them from reality, showing the results of their activities and their financial status. This research discusses the concept of creative accounting, the most important methods used in financial statements and its relationship with external auditing, and procedures to limit accounting creativity. This study uses descriptive analysis methods after confirming its theoretical aspects in practice. Using the statistical program Wolfram Alpha, the results of the questionnaire were distributed to registered Iraqi accounting experts and several results were obtained</strong></p> Doaa Mohammed Abdulrahman Copyright (c) 2022 2022-03-30 2022-03-30 28 131 238 251 10.33095/jeas.v28i131.2248 Planning the Production of the Electrical Distribution Converter (400KV/11) Using Time Series Methods and Goal Programming in the Fuzzy Environment <p><strong>This Paper aims to plan the production of the electrical distribution converter (400 KV/11) for one month at Diyala Public Company and with more than one goal for the decision-maker in a fuzzy environment. The fuzzy demand was forecasting using the fuzzy time series model. The fuzzy lead time for raw materials involved in the production of the electrical distribution converter (400 KV/11) was addressed using the fuzzy inference matrix through the application of the matrix in Matlab, and since the decision-maker has more than one goal, so a mathematical model of goal programming was create, which aims to achieve two goals, the first is to reduce the total production costs of the electrical distribution converter (400 KV/11) and the second is to maximize the amount produced from them, where the fuzzy data of the mathematical model were processed using the ranking function. Through the results obtained to solve the mathematical model using the Lingo program, we find that the mathematical model has achieved both objectives, i.e. reduce the total production costs of the main product to less than (4464254500) Iraqi dinars and maximize the amount produced from the main product for more than (17000) parts per month</strong></p> Safa Basim Ayed Wakas S. Khalaf Copyright (c) 2022 2022-03-30 2022-03-30 28 131 1 23 10.33095/jeas.v28i131.2231 The Decent Work Impact in Enhancing Job Immersion/ An Applied Research in Labour and Vocational Training Directorate <p><strong>The research aims to identify decent work and its impact in enhancing job immersion. The questionnaire was adopted as a tool to analyze the sample responses of (81) workers to represent an estimated response rate of (88 per cent) out of the total population of (92) individuals. The research adopted descriptive-analytical approach, and reliability calculation, arithmetic means standard deviations, relative importance, and regression analysis adopted on SPSS v.25. The conclusion shows that there is a medium correlation between decent work and job immersion, and there is a low impact of decent work with its dimensions in job immersion; extract the most important acceptable components for job from the sample point of view about the open query of decent work. As well as practical implications highlighting the workers' rights in Vocational Training Directorate in Iraq built on sound foundations that are guided by quality and acceptability by having decent work standards and enhancing job immersion. The research provides value, most notably interest to safe working conditions, and transfer of workers from a situation of worry to a stable situation by reducing the terms of the contract service period, and conversion of temporary contracts to permanent members</strong></p> Areej Saeed Khaleel Zahraa Abbas Ali huseen Copyright (c) 2022 2022-03-30 2022-03-30 28 131 24 41 10.33095/jeas.v28i131.2232 The Role Of Smart Leadership Dimensions In Crisis Management- A study For Opinions Of Sample Of Administrative Leaderships In A number Of Humanities Colleges At The University Of Mosul <p><strong>This research aims at answering many questions raised by the research problem concerning the view of the organizations under consideration for the concept of smart leadership and its most important dimensions, as well as the view of crisis management and its concept and most important methods through research objectives that define and clarify the smart leadership with its dimensions and methods of crisis management. </strong></p> <p><strong>For the purpose of reaching the results of the research and testing the assumptions about the relationship between smart leadership and methods of crisis management, the researcher adopted a questionnaire, designed especially to be a criterion for the research, as the main tool for data collection. The results of the research sample, which consisted of (44) respondents from administrative leaders working in a number of humanities colleges at the University of Mosul, were analyzed, and important results were reached related to the existence of crisis management methods at the administrative leaders which work through smart leadership in the organization under consideration. The relation between the two variables was one of a strong correlation and the effect was significant between these two variables. The results confirmed the hypothesis of the research, and explanation of the role played by smart leadership in terms of its dimensions in crisis management in the researched field</strong></p> Reem Saad Al-Jameel Copyright (c) 2022 2022-03-30 2022-03-30 28 131 42 58 10.33095/jeas.v28i131.2233 The Influence of Organizational Power on the Achievement of Entrepreneurship for Business Organizations An Analytical Study of the Views of a Sample of Managers in the Iraqi Ministry of Education <p><strong>This research aims to study the influence of organizational power on the achievement of entrepreneurship for business organizations. It is an analytical study of the views of a sample of managers in the Iraqi Ministry of Education. The research highlights the contribution that can be made from the knowledge of the theory of business organizations in achieving organizational success. The organizational power of the organization contributes to achieving entrepreneurship in the business environment and achieving a competitive position in the work environment. The research dealt with two variables: the first is the independent variable, the organizational power in its dimensions (Expend Power, Structural Power, Prestige Power). And the second variable is the entrepreneurship of business organizations in their dimensions (initiative, investment opportunities, creativity). A sample of (32) directors of the Iraqi Ministry of Education was included, including the assistants of the general directors, departmental managers and the divisions at the ministry's center. The questionnaire was adopted as a main tool for collecting data. The SPSS program was used to measure, analyze and test the hypotheses and interpret the results of the research and the existence of a correlation relationship and the relationship of significant effect of statistical significance between the organizational power entrepreneurship of the business organizations in the Iraqi Ministry of Education. A number of conclusions were reached, the most important of which is that the organizational power has the greatest impact on the achievement of entrepreneurship for the organization. It contributes to its stability, growth and reputation, and achieves success among leading sectors</strong></p> Alaa Muhsin Khafeef AL-Ghraibawy Copyright (c) 2022 2022-03-30 2022-03-30 28 131 59 82 10.33095/jeas.v28i131.2234