Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences <div id="jInfo"> <div class="linkContent"> <div id="about" class="tip2"> <div id="jInfo"> <div class="linkContent"> <div id="about" class="tip2"> <p>The Journal of Economics &amp; Administrative Sciences (JEAS) Established in 1973, It is a research journal published by the College of Administration and Economics / University of Baghdad (Baghdad, Iraq). It is quarterly publishing articles that describe original research of permanent interest in all branches of administration, economics, accounting, and statistics. JEAS publishes National and international peer-review research in the areas of business administration, supply chain management, entrepreneurship, human capital management, management information systems, economics, finance, accounting, public administration, governance, and statistics. The journal welcomes both analytical and empirical research studies.</p> <p>Academic publishing is one of the basic requirements for supporting and activating the movement of scientific research, It provides researchers with an important opportunity to assess their research through arbitration clauses governing scientific research published, and display their research for scientific communication in production and employment results in the movement of scientific research service, The College Journal (Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences) from the prestigious journals in the life process issued by the College of Administrative and Economics - University of Baghdad, a quarterly scientific journal, dealing with economic and administrative studies, accounting and statistical.<br />Also interested in research on applied and field studies and evaluation of cognitive styles and concepts and comparative studies and case studies, as well as building models and theoretical frameworks and summaries of Masters and PhDs outstanding, as well as the deployment of business conferences and seminars within and outside the country.<br />The Journal was quarterly published every three months and four issues per year, as well as it's journal concerned with the deployment of the upgrade for the purposes of research for professors.<br />The first issue was released it in 1973 and expanded in scope issued to Arab countries and has attracted research from outside the country .<br />The Journal has obtained ISSN (2227-703x) and The number of deposit in the Library and Archives in Baghdad (1041 to 2008), and is continuing to supplement issued to all Iraqi universities and educational institutions, as well as the relevant ministries. <br />Scientific Seasonal Refereed Journal Specialized In Economic, Administration, Accounting And Statistical Studies<br />DATE OF FIRST ISSUE (1973).<br />NO. OF ISSUE YEAR (4).<br />issue published between 1973-until now.</p> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> كلية الإدارة والاقتصاد/ جامعة بغداد en-US Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences 2518-5764 <p>Articles submitted to the journal should not have been published before in their current or substantially similar form, or be under consideration for publication with another journal. Please see JEAS originality guidelines for details. Use this in conjunction with the points below about references, before submission i.e. always attribute clearly using either indented text or quote marks as well as making use of the preferred Harvard style of formatting. Authors submitting articles for publication warrant that the work is not an infringement of any existing copyright and will indemnify the publisher against any breach of such warranty. For ease of dissemination and to ensure proper policing of use, papers and contributions become the legal copyright of the publisher unless otherwise agreed.</p> <p>The editor may make use of Turnitin software for checking the originality of submissions received.</p> Using Game Theory to Determine the Optimal Strategy for the Transportation Sector in Iraq <p><strong>In this paper, game theory was used and applied to the transport sector in Iraq, as this sector includes two axes, the public transport axis and the second axis the private transport axis, as each of these axes includes several types of transport, namely (sea transport, air transport, land transport, transport by rail, port transport) and the travel and tourism sector, as public transport lacks this sector, as the competitive advantage matrix for the transport sector was formed and after applying the MinMax-MaxMin principle to the matrix in all its stages, it was found that there was an equilibrium point except for the last stage where the equilibrium point was not available Therefore, the use of the linear programming method was used to solve the matrix, because the matrix was of a degree (5 * 5), so the result of the game was reached that the investment of public transport in the field of railways would achieve the highest possible profit and private transport in the field of ports to achieve the least possible loss.</strong></p> Suhad Faisal Abboud Copyright (c) 2022 2022-07-19 2022-07-19 28 132 157 173 10.33095/jeas.v28i132.2282 Analysis of Models (NAGARCH & APGARCH) by Using Simulations <p><strong>Simulation experiments are a means of solving in many fields, and it is the process of designing a model of the real system in order to follow it and identify its behavior through certain models and formulas written according to a repeating software style with a number of iterations. The aim of this study is to build a model&nbsp; that deals with the behavior suffering from the state of (heteroskedasticity) by studying the models (APGARCH &amp; NAGARCH) using (Gaussian) and (Non-Gaussian) distributions for different sample sizes (500,1000,1500,2000) through the stage of time series analysis (identification , estimation, diagnostic checking and prediction). The data was generated using the estimations of the parameters resulting from the application of these models to the return series for the exchange rates of Iraqi dinar against US dollar (IQ/USD) for the period from (21/7/2011) until (21/07/2021) and then using these estimations in the process of generating data. The identifications were made using the (Ljung-Box and ARCH tests) with&nbsp; (1000 replicates) and the result showed the presence of states (autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity) and this states increased with increasing the sample size and the best result of NAGARCH with Normal distribution and the best result of APGARCH with General error distribution. The Maximum Likelihood Estimation method used to estimate the parameters of the models and the best result with largest sample size (2000) , in the diagnostic checking phase the result showed the ability of the models (NAGARCH &amp; APGARCH) to process the states of (autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity) and the best result with (APGARCH) model when the error distributed (General error distribution) </strong></p> Heba Dhaher Alwan Suhail Najm Abdulla Copyright (c) 2022 2022-06-30 2022-06-30 28 132 62 73 10.33095/jeas.v28i132.2272 The Use of the Regression Tree and the Support Vector Machine in the Classification of the Iraqi Stock Exchange for the Period 2019-2020 <p><strong>&nbsp;The financial markets are one of the sectors whose data is characterized by continuous movement in most of the times and it is constantly changing, so it is difficult to predict its trends , and this leads to the need</strong> <strong>of methods , means and techniques for making decisions, and that pushes investors and analysts in the financial markets to</strong> <strong>use various and different methods in order to reach at predicting the movement of the direction of the financial markets.</strong> <strong>In order to reach the goal of making decisions in different investments, where the algorithm of the support vector machine and the CART regression tree algorithm are used to classify the stock data in order to determine the trend of the stock if it is a rising stock or a descending stock</strong> <strong>.</strong><strong>The aim of the research is to classify the financial stock data using five variables</strong> <strong>where the data of the Iraqi Islamic Bank for investment and development was used where the results showed the accuracy of the algorithm, the support vector machine</strong> <strong>and the CART algorithm, and their performance was good.</strong> <strong>Also, the results showed that the Support Vector Machines algorithm is the best when compared with the CART algorithm, using the Classification Error and MSE criteria</strong></p> Mohamed Hesham Ibrahim Asmaa Ghalib Jaber Copyright (c) 2022 2022-06-30 2022-06-30 28 132 74 87 10.33095/jeas.v28i132.2273 Bayes Analysis for the Scale Parameter of Gompertz Distribution <p><strong>In this paper, we investigate the behavior of the bayes estimators, for the scale parameter of the Gompertz distribution under two different loss functions such as, the squared error loss function, the exponential loss function (proposed), based different double prior distributions represented as erlang with inverse levy prior, erlang with non-informative prior, inverse levy with non-informative prior and erlang with chi-square prior.</strong></p> <p><strong>The simulation method was fulfilled to obtain the results, including the estimated values and the mean square error (MSE) for the scale parameter of the Gompertz distribution, for different cases for the scale parameter of the</strong><strong> Gompertz </strong><strong>distribution, with different samples sizes. The estimates have been compared in terms of their mean-squared error (MSE).</strong></p> <p><strong>The results of this paper show that bayes estimators of the scale parameter &nbsp;of the Gompertz distribution, under the exponential loss function (proposed) are superior to the bayes estimators &nbsp;under&nbsp; the squared error loss function , based on erlang-chi-square double prior with &nbsp;for&nbsp; all samples sizes&nbsp; and for all the true values of , in terms of their mean-squared error (MSE)</strong></p> Jinan A. Naser Al-Obedy Copyright (c) 2022 2022-06-30 2022-06-30 28 132 88 104 10.33095/jeas.v28i132.2274 Comparing Some of Robust the Non-Parametric Methods for Semi-Parametric Regression Models Estimation <p><strong>In this research, some robust non-parametric methods were used to estimate the semi-parametric regression model,</strong><strong> a</strong><strong>nd then&nbsp; these methods were compared using the MSE comparison criterion</strong><strong>, </strong><strong>different sample sizes, levels of variance, pollution rates, and three different models were used.</strong> <strong>These methods are S-LLS S-Estimation -local smoothing, (M-LLS)M- Estimation -local smoothing, (S-NW) S-Estimation-NadaryaWatson Smoothing, and (M-NW) M-Estimation-Nadarya-Watson Smoothing.</strong></p> <p><strong>The results in the first model proved that the (S-LLS) method was the best in the case of large sample sizes, and small sample sizes showed that the (M-LLS) method was the best, while the second model showed in general that the S-LLS method was the best in addition to the method M-LLS was the best in some cases of sample sizes and at different levels of variance. As for the third model, it was shown through the results that in most cases the S-LLS method was the best in addition to the M-LLS method which was better in some cases of sample sizes and at different levels of variance.</strong></p> <p><strong>&nbsp;</strong></p> Zahraa Kh.Bahez Husam .A. Rasheed Copyright (c) 2022 2022-06-30 2022-06-30 28 132 105 117 10.33095/jeas.v28i132.2275 Using a hybrid SARIMA-NARNN Model to Forecast the Numbers of Infected with (COVID-19) in Iraq <p><strong>Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.</strong></p> Ayat Ahmed Hamel Baydaa Ismael Abdulwahhab Copyright (c) 2022 2022-06-30 2022-06-30 28 132 118 133 10.33095/jeas.v28i132.2276 Estimation of Time of Survival Rate by Using Clayton Function for the Exponential Distribution with Practical Application <p><strong>Each phenomenon contains several variables. Studying these variables, we find mathematical formula to get the joint distribution and the copula that are a useful and good tool to find the amount of correlation, where the survival function was used to measure the relationship of age with the level of cretonne in the remaining blood of the person. The Spss program was also used to extract the influencing variables from a group of variables using factor analysis and then using the Clayton copula function that is used to find the shared binary distributions using multivariate distributions, where the bivariate distribution was calculated, and then the survival function value was calculated for a sample size (50) drawn from Yarmouk Hospital for renal patients, where nephritis directly affects human life because of its risks related to an increase in the possibility of permanent damage to the kidneys or infection that may cause failure. Renal life-threatening and the survival function represents the time when a particular system stops working After applying the model, it was found from the results of the research that there is an effect of an increase in the level of creatinine in the blood with age on the survival function ratio, as the higher the creatinine percentage leads to a decrease in survival, which means that the period of time lived by a person with an increase in creatinine in the blood decreases the higher it is in patients</strong><strong>.</strong></p> <p><strong>&nbsp;</strong></p> Muna Kadhim Jewi Copyright (c) 2022 2022-06-30 2022-06-30 28 132 134 145 10.33095/jeas.v28i132.2278 Using Genetic Algorithm to Estimate the Parameters of the Gumbel Distribution Function by Simulation <p><strong>In this research, the focus was on estimating the parameters on (min- Gumbel distribution), using the maximum likelihood method and the Bayes method. The genetic algorithmmethod was employed in estimating the parameters of the maximum likelihood method as well as&nbsp; the Bayes method. The comparison was made using the mean error squares (MSE), where the best&nbsp; estimator&nbsp; is the one who has the least mean squared error. It was noted that the best estimator was (BLG_GE).</strong></p> Salam Jasim Mohammed Ali Khalid Khudair Shurooq kadhum shaffeq Copyright (c) 2022 2022-06-30 2022-06-30 28 132 146 156 10.33095/jeas.v28i132.2281 Methods of Forecasting Credit Losses in A Sample of Iraqi Banks - A Comparative Analysis <p><strong>&nbsp; The general trend in Iraqi banks is focused towards the application of international financial reporting standards, especially the international financial reporting standard IFRS 9 “Financial Instruments”, in addition to the directives issued on the Central Bank of Iraq’s instructions for the year 2018 regarding the development of expected credit losses models,</strong> <strong>and not to adhere to a specific method for calculating these losses and authorizing the banks’ departments to adopt the method of calculating losses that suits the nature of the bank’s activity and to be consistent in its use from time to time.</strong> <strong>The research problem revolves around the different methodologies for calculating expected credit losses according to the instructions of the Central Bank of Iraq compared to the requirements for calculating those losses according to IFRS 9, as well as the difference between the banks listed in the Iraq Stock Exchange among themselves.</strong> <strong>The research aims to present methods of forecasting expected credit losses in a sample of Iraqi banks and compare them with the requirements of IFRS 9 and the instructions of the Central Bank of Iraq in this regard. The research reaches a set of conclusions, the most important of which is that the International Financial Reporting Standard IFRS 9 has not been fully applied in Iraqi banks so far.</strong> <strong>There is also a difference between banks in the methods of calculating expected credit losses according to the mentioned criterion. And based on the conclusions that come, the research presents a set of recommendations, the most important of which is the necessity of preparing the infrastructure in the Iraqi environment first so that the standard can be applied correctly by subjecting the employees to training courses to familiarize them with the IFRS 9 standard, its application methods and requirements.</strong></p> RABEAH DHEYAA JASIM Bushra N. Abdullah Al-Mashhdani Copyright (c) 2022 2022-06-30 2022-06-30 28 132 174 195 10.33095/jeas.v28i132.2283 The Effect of the Corona Pandemic (covid-19) on the Quality of the Auditor’s Reporting by Application to Iraqi Economic Units <p>Abstract:</p> <p><strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The research aims to shed light on the Corona pandemic and its repercussions on the global economy in general, and on the activities of Iraqi economic units in particular. It also aims to show the impact of the auditor’s reporting on the effects of the Corona pandemic on economic units and its reflection on the quality of his reporting. To achieve the objectives of the research, the researcher prepared a questionnaire according to the five-point Likert scale and took into account in its preparation compatibility with the characteristics of the study community, and that the target community for this questionnaire are the economic units listed in the Iraq Stock Exchange that have completed their final accounts for the year 2020 (the year of the pandemic) ,</strong> <strong>the number of (62) economic units, auditors working in the Federal Office of Financial Supervision and private auditing companies and offices, as well as academics specialized in this field, based on the following hypotheses:</strong></p> <p><strong>1- There is no statistically significant correlation between the auditor’s reporting on the impact of the Corona pandemic and the auditor’s reporting quality.</strong></p> <p><strong>2- There is no statistically significant effect between the auditor’s reporting on the impact of the Corona pandemic and the auditor’s reporting quality.</strong></p> <p><strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The research sample was represented by a group of auditors working in the Federal Office of Financial Supervision and private auditing companies and offices, as well as academics specialized in this field working in the accounting departments of Iraqi universities.</strong></p> <p><strong>&nbsp;</strong></p> <p><strong>&nbsp;</strong></p> <p><strong>&nbsp;</strong></p> <p><strong>&nbsp;</strong></p> <p><strong>&nbsp;</strong></p> <p><strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The most prominent finding of the research is that it is necessary for the auditor to reconsider amending the method of obtaining audit evidence, for the purpose of allowing him to finally reach a neutral technical opinion about the fairness of the financial statements, as well as relying on information technologies and other new methods in his work. In addition, the auditor should consider using new procedures to facilitate the audit process, in order to avoid delays in obtaining the information and data necessary to complete the audit in a timely manner.</strong></p> Nawfal Ghazi Zghair Abbas H. Yahya Al-Temimi Copyright (c) 2022 2022-06-30 2022-06-30 28 132 196 213 10.33095/jeas.v28i132.2284 The Quality of Accounting Education in Iraqi Universities <p><strong>The aim of the research is to assess the quality of the university accounting education system in Iraq. The researcher relied on the opinions of a sample of academics specialized in this field by preparing a checklist focusing on a set of axes that would affect the quality of accounting education in the Iraqi environment.</strong></p> <p><strong>&nbsp;The most prominent finding of the research is that the quality of accounting education in Iraqi universities is medium and differs from one university to another in some quality components. In addition, the prescribed curricula and study plans applied in the accounting departments do not live up to the required level, as the largest proportion of those curricula are theoretically devoid of practical exercises that contribute to the quality of accounting education.</strong></p> <p><strong>&nbsp;</strong></p> Laith Jassim Mohammed Safaa Ahmed Mohammed Al-Ani Copyright (c) 2022 2022-06-30 2022-06-30 28 132 214 232 10.33095/jeas.v28i132.2285 The Impact of Governance Mechanisms on the Accounting Disclosure of the Sustainable Development of Iraqi Economic Units <p><strong>The research aims to demonstrate the impact of governance mechanisms on the quality of financial reports in the light of the accounting disclosure for sustainable development represented in (accounting disclosure for economic development, accounting disclosure for environmental development, and accounting disclosure for social development) in a sample of banks listed in the Iraq Stock Exchange.</strong></p> <p><strong>Governance mechanisms were measured by evaluating and analyzing the mechanisms in banks for the research sample consisting of (15) banks, based on the governance guide issued by the Central Bank, as well as the banks’ financial reports for the years 2016 -2018, and the dimensions of accounting disclosure for sustainable development were measured through the use of a form. The survey, which is one of the sources of obtaining data and information related to the accounting disclosure on sustainable development. In preparing the form, the researcher relied mainly on the indicators issued by the (GRI), especially the index (G4), and the form (70) forms were distributed to a sample of bank employees, the sample of the research.</strong></p> <p><strong>&nbsp;The study model and hypothesis were built based on the literature of previous studies, and the simple and multiple linear regression method was used to test the hypotheses. Senior management and lack of transparency in information disclosure and financial reporting, and the most important thing that the research recommends is activating governance mechanisms in banks that have a positive impact on the relationship between accounting disclosure for sustainability. Development, as it limits the opportunistic behavior of management and encourages banks to achieve more transparency in financial reporting.</strong></p> Sarah Nazar Mostafa AL-Sarraf Bushra Fadil Al-Taie Copyright (c) 2022 2022-06-30 2022-06-30 28 132 233 251 10.33095/jeas.v28i132.2286 The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in Neutralizing Oil Price Fluctuations on the Gross Domestic Product in Iraq for the Period (1990-2019) <p><strong>The research aimed to measure the reality of monetary policy and its role in neutralizing the impact of fluctuations in total domestic oil prices, through the most important monetary policy variable (money supply). An example of this is using a simple technique in the previous example, turning it into a straightforward user interface by (Judd and Kunee). After estimating the impact of the policy with the domestic gross domestic oil prices in Iraq, the effect of fluctuations in the domestic gross domestic oil prices in the simple regression model, while the morale of oil prices was not proven with a negative sign, while the morale of money supply and their impact on the increase of the domestic was proven in the multiple regression model. Statistically, interpreting this indicates that the participation of other variables to oil prices in the graph of the rate of impact absorption and a negative impact was achieved in the nature of the original variable, and through the analysis of the path and direct graph of oil prices on the GDP, the evaluation of the Iraqi economy is equal to 95% of public revenues. It amounts to 60% of Iraq's GDP. A constant source of shocks because it is associated with cheap prices. In the light of this, the research reached a recommendation to reduce dependence on oil revenues, as it represents a permanent source of shocks due to its association with oil prices, which represents an external variable subject to market price fluctuations and the tendency to rely on other alternative sources of activating other sectors</strong></p> Raneen Younis Jassim Heider Nima Bekheet Copyright (c) 2022 2022-06-30 2022-06-30 28 132 1 26 10.33095/jeas.v28i132.2268 Examining the Asymmetric Impacts of Interest and Exchange Rate on Investment in Egypt for the Period 1976-2020: Applying NARDL Model <p><strong>Most of the studies conducted in the past decades focused on the effect of interest rates and exchange rates on domestic investment under the assumption that the independent variables have the same effect on the dependent variable, but there were limited studies that investigated the unequal effects of changes in interest rates and exchange rates, both positive and negative, on domestic investment.&nbsp; This study used a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to assess the unequal effects of the real interest rate and real exchange rate variables on domestic investment in Egypt for the period 1976 - 2020.&nbsp; The results revealed that positive and negative shocks for both exchange rates have unequal effects on investment in the long and short term.&nbsp; In addition, the stability of the nonlinear model was tested using recursive estimate tests and found to be stable.</strong></p> Saif Sallam Alhakimi Talat Rashad Shama Copyright (c) 2022 2022-06-30 2022-06-30 28 132 27 44 10.33095/jeas.v28i132.2269 Industrial Sector and Development of Iraqi Economy by Kaldor's Approach For Years (2017-2030) <p><strong>The study aims to clarify the impact of growth in the industrial sector on economic growth in the Iraqi economics according to the methodology of Kaldor for (2017-2030) , taking into consideration the effect of the accumulation of capital in the calculation of growth rates in the economy through productivity estimate of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) to growth in the economy, which is why the study assumes a formula to comply with the laws of Kaldor growth models developed requirements. This study is the most important to find out&nbsp; the development of the laws of Kaldor among Arabic studies, especially the first and third, so that the relationship between the growth of industrial production and economic growth as represented by the overall productivity of factors of production , while employment relationship is in the non-manufacturing sector with total production of inputs (TFI).</strong></p> <p><strong>The study has concluded from the developed formulation to calculate degree of increasing in returning&nbsp; any production stage that the increasing degree of return comparable size when estimating the laws formats as there is a strong impact between the growth rates in industrial production and growth rates in gross domestic product</strong></p> Adel Ghazi Khalil Jasim Al- Hayaly Copyright (c) 2022 2022-06-30 2022-06-30 28 132 45 61 10.33095/jeas.v28i132.2270