Use A State Space Model and Forecast House Prices in Baghdad.

Abstract

The purchase of a home and access to housing is one of the most important requirements for the life of the individual and the stability of living and the development of the prices of houses in general and in Baghdad in particular affected by several factors, including the basic area of the house, the age of the house, the neighborhood in which the housing is available and the basic services, Where the statistical model SSM model was used to model house prices over a period of time from 2000 to 2018 and forecast until 2025 The research is concerned with enhancing the importance of this model and describing it as a standard and important compared to the models used in the analysis of time series after obtaining the series of time above prices of houses in two decades in the Mansour district of Baghdad, It was chosen for being an important neighborhood of Baghdad and services are available that are ideal compared to other neighboring neighborhoods Which lies within the province of Baghdad The possibility of applying the SSM model to the time series analysis and the prediction was achieved. The statistical analysis was carried out using the E-views version 9 program and the Kalman filter was applied in the construction of the case space model, prediction and update after estimating the state variable in the model to enhance the quality And the efficiency of this type of modeling and representation of the best representation of the data studied.