Analysis of the Role of Agricultural Investment Policies and Agricultural Lending in Developing Commodity Production of Rice Crops

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of agricultural investment policy—represented by agricultural loans and investment allocations—on rice crop production in Iraq over the period 2003–2023, employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Using time-series econometric analysis, the study confirms a short-term positive and statistically significant effect of financial support on rice output, while revealing statistically insignificant long-term effects. The presence of a cointegration relationship suggests long-term equilibrium between agricultural policy variables and rice production. However, the absence of causality in the Yamamoto-Toda test implies that structural and institutional inefficiencies may dilute the long-term impact of financial interventions. Practical implications of the study lie in guiding policymakers toward optimizing short-term agricultural investment strategies while simultaneously reforming institutional frameworks to enhance long-run outcomes. Emphasis is placed on the effective deployment of resources, improved monitoring mechanisms, and fostering innovation in agricultural practices. The results also underscore the importance of aligning credit mechanisms with production cycles to maximize returns. From a social perspective, the research highlights agriculture’s critical role in enhancing food security and rural employment. It addresses the economic disparities caused by inefficient resource allocation and advocates for policies that promote Development of the agricultural sector, particularly in post-conflict regions like Iraq. The unique contribution of this study lies in its comprehensive econometric approach contextualized within Iraq’s fragile economic structure. It provides a data-driven framework for understanding how targeted financial mechanisms can enhance agricultural productivity, offering insight for emerging economies aiming to balance investment efficiency with Economic development.