التنبؤ بالأحتياجات من أدوية الأمراض المزمنة والمحافظة على المال العام* دراسة تطبيقية في دائرة العيادات الطبية الشعبية

Abstract

Abstract                                                                                

The health section is considered to be one of the most important section in the  field of service economical and social unit because of its concern in the life of human begin and society and the  process of determining the need of drugs and estimating them correctly is one of the elements  that would affect the quality of services presented to patient to and society  in reducing the costs resulted from surplus inventory and the expiration date of drugs therefore it becomes necessarily looking for techniques or mechanisims in the process of estimating the needs for drugs for developing performances to attain the strategic goals in the health section and the problem of  the research is contained in the difficulties that face the Ministry of Health in attuining the previse fitness between the size of real demand and the size of expected the size demand that resulted from utilizing traditional or shallow and simple techniques which resulted in reducing the degree of confidence in the outcomes of those techniques in estimating the needs of drugs and then westing the public property the research aims to use relevant quantitative models to attain the precise fitness between the size of real demand and the size of anticipated demand for reducing the errors at the estimating process for the needs and then saving the public property and attaining the quality at health services the research contains five topics the first topic related to the methodology and the second one contains the theoretical frame the third one seeks in the reality of the estimation process for the needs of drugs for the health unit whereas the fourth one related to the usage of the scientific techniques used in the for casting of the needs and finally the fifth topic related to the conclusions and recommandations