Analysis of the Causal Relationship Long-and Short-term Between the Price of Crude Oil, the Global Price of Gold and the US. Dollar Exchange Rate

Abstract

This research aims to test the causal relationship long-and short-run between the price of gold the global crude oil price and the exchange rate of the dollar and how you can take advantage of the nature of this relationship, particularly in the Arab oil states that achieve huge surpluses, including Iraq and how to keep on the purchasing power of these surpluses or reduce the levels of risk.

The problem is that the Arab oil countries, adversely affected, as a result of that relationship, due to the fact that its role confined to the sale of crude oil only. They do not have control in the dollar, then they are not able to take advantage of its impact on the price of gold the fact that gold is effective protection against fluctuations in the U.S. dollar

Model was used Vectors Error Correction Model VECM) to test the causal relationship long-term and short-term between the price of gold the global crude oil price and the dollar exchange rate, using daily data for 86 observations for the period from  1 jan  2013 until 27 march 2013

The results showed that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between both the global price of gold and the dollar exchange rate with the price of crude oil. The study also shows that the price of crude oil in the short term have  positive relationship with  the price of gold, and have negative relationship with the  exchange rate of dollar   according to the  results  of Wald Test.

When taken The outcome of those the inter relationship between oil and gold, producing Arab states find themselves forced to bear the losses resulting from the relationship between the dollar and oil gold.