USING SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IN DETERMINING THE OPTIMAL&EFFICIENT PRODUCTION PLANS IN GREENHOUSES IN ASSOCIATION OF AL-WATAN UNDER CONDITION OF RISK &UNCERTAINTY

Abstract

 The objectives of this research are to determine and find out the reality of crops structure of greenhouses in association of Al-Watan  in order to stand on the optimal use of economic resources available for the purpose of reaching a crop structure optimization of the farm that achieves maximize profit and gross and net farm incomes , using the method of linear programming to choose the farm optimal plan with the highest net income , as well as identifying production plans farm efficient with (income - deviation) optimal (E-A) of the Association and derived, which takes into account the margin risk wich derived from each plan using the model( MOTAD), as a model of models of linear programming alternative programming models squared used to determine the production farm optimal plans under conditions of risk and uncertainty . The study relied on the use of the model of linear programming in determining the farm optimum  production plan and sensitivity analysis of these plans, using the program Statistical QSB, also used the model MOTAD to determine the farm efficient plans of expected return(E) and lower risk  at  a sensitivity analysis to it: the match results that have been obtained for  first  plans of model MOTAD to the results of a solution model of linear programming crop itself in terms of cropping and agricultural areas, and also plans of the  first and the second scenario the efficient plans that take into account the margin risk may differ from the optimal plans and that does not take into account the circumstances of the risk , which aims to veneration absolute income expected of the first plan obtained from the use of model (LP), as they differ from plan farm actual and conclusions that have been reached can offer a number of recommendations, the most important : the use of linear programming method to determine the investment of available resources more efficiently, which helps to increase production. Crop recombination of the Association and as shown by the results of the (LP)in order to achieve the economic efficiency of farmers Association and the exclusion of agricultural crops is economically important.