(Dynamic& Static) Forecast of surplus or Deficit of Public budget in Iraq for (2017،2018)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.33095/jeas.v25i112.1670Keywords:
الموازنة العامة (فائض أو عجز)، معدل سعر برميل النفط المتوقع في صندوق النقد الدولي، معدل سعر برميل النفط وفق تقديرات وزارة النفط العراقية، التنبؤ الديناميكي، التنبؤ الساكن., public Budget (Surplus or Deficit), IMF estimations average oil price , MOO actual average oil price ,Dynamic forecasting, Static forecasting.Abstract
This research aims at forecasting the public budget of Iraq (surplus or deficit) for 2017 & 2018 through using two methods to forecast. First: forecast budget surplus or deficit by using IMF estimations average oil price per barrel adopted in the public federal budget amounted to USD 44 in 2017 & USD 46 in 2018; Second: forecast budget surplus or deficit by using MOO actual average oil price in global markets amounted to USD 66 in 2018 through applying Dynamic Model & Static Model. Then analyze the models to reach the best one. The research concluded that those estimations of dynamic forecasting model of budget surplus or deficit for 2017 & 2018 gives good reliable results for future periods when using the actual average oil price according to the Iraqi MOO estimates.
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